## Instability and Violence - The region of [[Iran]], [[Afghanistan]], and [[Pakistan]] is known for its high level of activity, often for the wrong reasons, with broken communal life, breached international borders, and secret operations by militants and militaries [(00:00:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=2s). - The region has become increasingly violent and unstable in recent years, with reciprocal skirmishes making it one of the world's most dangerous areas [(00:00:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=30s). - In January, Bosi insurgents launched attacks across borders into Iran and Pakistan, prompting the Iranian [[Air force | Air Force]] to bomb covert groups within Pakistan, and later, Pakistan's Air Force targeted [[Taliban]] units in Afghanistan [(00:00:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=34s). - The 2024 Global Security index ranks Pakistan as the fourth most affected by militancy, Afghanistan at 6th, and Iran at 26th, with nationalists, jihadists, militants, and governments fighting for supremacy [(00:01:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=82s). - The region is also one of the most unfriendly places for women, with the Taliban recently tightening its morality law, banning women from hearing each other [(00:02:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=120s). - A female student in Iran was detained for protesting the strict dress code, stripping to her underwear in demonstration, with over 250 articles published on the incident [(00:02:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=142s). ## Historical Context of Corasan - The region of [[Central Asia]], particularly the area of Corasan, has a complex history of being ruled by various [[Turkic peoples | Turkic]] and [[Iran | Iranian]] monarchs, with no unified authority ever developing [(00:03:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=213s). - In the 19th and 20th centuries, Corasan became a battleground for the [[Russia | Russian]] and [[United Kingdom | British]] Empires, with the [[Russians]] advancing from the north and the British from the south [(00:04:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=240s). - A peace treaty was signed in 1893, turning [[Afghanistan]] into a British client state, with the border between [[British Raj | British India]] and Afghanistan established by [[Henry Marion Durand | Henry Durand]] [(00:04:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=274s). - The [[Durand Line]] was signed and imposed on the region, disregarding geography, history, and existing realities on the ground, and it cut through ethnic communities that had coexisted for centuries [(00:05:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=311s). - The [[Pashtuns | Pashtun]] people were particularly affected by the new border, which divided their towns and cities, and many Pashtun areas were left outside of Afghanistan, including [[Peshawar]], a city of great significance to them [(00:05:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=327s). - Successive Afghan governments have continued to reject the Durand Line, adding to the tension, and nearly three times as many Pashtun live in [[Pakistan]] than in Afghanistan, fueling strong irredentist feelings in [[Kabul]] [(00:05:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=358s). ## The Durand Line and Pashtun Irredentism - [[Afghanistan]] claims Pakistan's [[Khyber Pakhtunkhwa]] and [[Baltistan | Balistan]] regions, and if an Afghan government were able to unite the Pashtun people, Pashtun dominance in Afghanistan would grow stronger, and Afghan control over sparsely populated Balistan would give it access to the world's oceans [(00:06:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=373s). - The Taliban, which has ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 and again since 2021, strongly opposes the [[Durand Line]] and draws strength from it, and the [[Taliban | Pakistani Taliban]] exists solely to undo Pakistan's control over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [(00:07:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=452s). - The Pakistani Taliban has been designated a terrorist group by [[Islamabad]] and has carried out attacks on schools, taken hostages, and bombed mosques, leading to fierce fighting between the two, resulting in thousands of deaths [(00:08:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=480s). - The conflict along the Durand Line is unusual, with the [[Pakistan | Pakistani]] Taliban carrying out attacks and kidnappings, and Pakistan responding with drone and missile strikes, while avoiding targeting the Afghan Taliban [(00:08:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=518s). - The emergence of [[Islamic State – Khorasan Province | ISIS-K]] in 2015 has added to the turmoil, with the group mostly focusing on fighting [[Kabul]], and the Taliban has allied with several [[Baloch people | Baloch]] sectarian groups in their pursuit of dominance [(00:09:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=542s). - The Baloch people, who are a divided community, have a sense of marginalization and feel that their cultural identity is under threat, and many have allied with the Taliban, who share a common goal of opposing the Durand Line [(00:09:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=579s). ## Baloch Separatism - The Baloch people extend to the [[Iran | Iranian]] side, with the majority being [[Sunni Islam | Sunni]], unlike the [[Shia Islam | Shia]] [[Iranian peoples | Iranians]], making them Iran's most alienated ethnic group and inclined towards separatism [(00:10:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=603s). - There are several Baloch separatist groups, including the [[Balochistan Liberation Front]] (BLF), formed in 1964, and the [[Balochistan Liberation Army | Baloch Liberation Army]] (BLA), formed in 2000 as an offshoot of the BLF [(00:10:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=624s). - The BLA rejects the political process and advocates solely for military action, while both the BLF and BLA primarily operate within [[Pakistan]] [(00:10:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=646s). - In Iran, there is the [[Jaish ul-Adl | Jaish al-Adl]] jihadist unit, formed in 2012, believed to be funded by [[Saudi Arabia]] and the [[United States]] [(00:11:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=662s). - All three [[Baloch people | Baloch]] separatist groups have acquired American weapons and equipment from the [[Taliban]], leading to deadlier attacks in Pakistan [(00:11:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=675s). - In the first 10 months of 2024, there were 624 deaths and nearly as many injuries, with August being especially deadly with 254 people killed in one month alone [(00:11:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=693s). - Baloch militants are hostile to [[Chinese language | Chinese]] interests, with attacks on Chinese engineers and facilities, including a blast near [[Jinnah International Airport | Karachi Airport]] that killed two Chinese engineers [(00:11:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=710s). - Tensions have also risen on the [[Iran | Iranian]] side, with 11 Iranian police officers killed near the city of Rasak, leading to missile and drone strikes into Pakistani territory [(00:12:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=725s). - The Baloch militants aim to create an independent state from parts of Iran, [[Pakistan]], and [[Afghanistan]] [(00:12:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=752s). ## Water Conflict and Resource Scarcity - The availability of resources, or lack thereof, is a main source of turmoil in the region, with the water conflict between Iran and Afghanistan being a prime example [(00:13:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=793s). - Afghanistan's water flows from the [[Hindu Kush]] mountains, feeding hydroelectric dams and producing hundreds of megawatts of electricity, but limiting access to an already scarce water supply [(00:13:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=808s). - The [[Helmand River]] is a highly contested water source, with both Afghans and [[Iranian peoples | Iranians]] ready to die for control, and attempts to formalize water rights have failed [(00:13:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=837s). - The 1973 Helmand water treaty forms the basis of bilateral water policy, but its enforcement relies on good faith, which is in short supply [(00:14:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=865s). - Regional projects have been disrupted due to inconsistent long-term infrastructure planning with local geography, leading to water scarcity and fueling conflict in the region [(00:15:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=912s). - A comparison of 1998 and 2019 satellite photos of the Hamon Lakes shows the significant impact of water scarcity, which has led to periodic skirmishes over the years [(00:15:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=923s). - In 1998, tensions escalated to the point where [[Iran]] gathered nearly 200,000 troops on the [[Afghanistan | Afghan]] border, poised to launch an attack, but ultimately backed down [(00:15:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=936s). - Deadly clashes broke out between Afghan and Iranian guards near the Hamon Lakes in May 2023, resulting in three deaths, with each side blaming the other for starting the fight [(00:16:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=962s). ## Escalation and Regional Security Crisis - The borders of Iran, Afghanistan, and [[Pakistan]] are devolving at their own pace, and [[Islamabad]], [[Tehran]], and [[Kabul]] have failed to keep a lid on ethnic nationalist and ideological forces at play [(00:16:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=980s). - The region from Pakistan's Northwest to Iran's Southeast to Afghanistan's South is merging into a single battle space, with human trafficking, drug smuggling, jihadist fighters, fringe militias, and separatist factions contributing to a massive self-destructive security crisis [(00:16:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=999s). - The situation in the region may already be the most dangerous place on [[Earth]], but an even greater threat looms if it continues to escalate, potentially drawing national governments into direct state-on-state conflict [(00:17:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=1021s). - The proxy provocation theory explains how smaller powers can manipulate or influence larger ones into conflict by creating situations that compel the larger powers to respond in ways that serve the smaller powers' interests [(00:17:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=1046s). - If the situation continues to escalate, regional conflict will eventually take place, and once it begins, it will be too late to prevent [(00:17:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8&t=1070s). ## Sources - [website](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8)