## Iran's Potential Nuclear Test and Global Implications - Multiple reports indicate that [[Iran]] may have conducted an underground nuclear test for the first time on October 5th, with the [[United States Geological Survey | US Geological Survey]] detecting unusual seismic activity with a magnitude of 4.5 at a depth of 10 km in a remote area southeast of the capital [[Tehran]] [(00:00:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=10s). - Iranian state-run media outlets reported that an extraordinary announcement regarding Iran's nuclear program would soon be made, but it is unclear if Iran covertly detonated a nuclear bomb to send a message to the [[Israel | Israelis]] [(00:00:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=26s). - The [[Iranian plateau | Iranian Plateau]] is prone to earthquakes, and the 10 km deep epicenter could be just the base value that seismographic readers can interpret, making it unclear if the incident was a nuclear test or a natural earthquake [(00:01:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=61s). - It is increasingly likely that Iran's leadership will get its hands on nuclear weapons, which could have significant global implications, including a potential increase in oil prices and a threat to advanced economies [(00:01:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=80s). ## Impact on Oil Prices and Advanced Economies - A third of the world's maritime oil trade goes through the [[Strait of Hormuz]], and if [[Iran]] were to close the strait, prices would skyrocket, affecting every advanced economy [(00:01:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=103s). ## Iran's Proxy Forces and Nuclear Deterrence - Iran has been at odds with the West for nearly half a century, and in response to Western activities, Iran developed a constellation of proxy forces in [[Lebanon]], [[Iraq]], [[Yemen]], and [[Gaza Strip | Gaza]] [(00:03:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=210s). - The deaths of proxy leaders such as [[Ismail Haniyeh]] and [[Hassan Nasrallah]] have weakened Iran's asymmetric and proxy capacity, leading the [[Iranian peoples | Iranians]] to potentially sprint to establish a more conventional form of deterrence, including nuclear weapons [(00:04:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=256s). - Iranian officials have been insinuating openly the need for nuclear weapons, and the government has been expanding the number and sophistication of its centrifuges for purifying uranium [(00:04:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=281s). ## Iran's Nuclear Activities and IAEA Monitoring - The International Atomic Energy Agency has been monitoring Iran's nuclear activities, and in February 2023, reported on the expansion of Iran's centrifuges [(00:04:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=294s). - [[Iran]] has accelerated its production of enriched uranium to 84% purity, close to the 90% needed for a nuclear bomb, and could produce enough fissile materials to manufacture a nuclear bomb within 12 days [(00:05:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=301s). ## International Response and Feasibility of Air Strikes - American and [[Israel | Israeli]] lawmakers have consistently vowed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, promising to strike Iranian nuclear sites if the nation nears a critical point of capability, but air strikes are no longer feasible due to Iran's facilities being too deeply buried [(00:05:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=336s). ## Potential Nuclear Doctrine and Foreign Policy - If [[Iran]] built a stockpile of nuclear bombs, its nuclear doctrine would determine its foreign policy, and it could either maintain close control over its nuclear arsenal or disperse and delegate tactical nuclear weapons to commanders in the field [(00:06:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=386s). ## Increased Brazenness and Regional Pressure - A nuclear-armed Iran would likely act more brazenly and recklessly, applying more pressure on its rivals to achieve strategic goals, particularly in the [[Persian Gulf]], where it could threaten US military facilities and disrupt the flow of crude oil and natural gas to global markets [(00:07:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=457s). - A nuclear-armed Iran would want to break free from the "containment belt" of US military bases in the region, which it sees as a leash, and could use the threat of nuclear escalation to deter military retaliation [(00:08:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=522s). ## Territorial Disputes and Military Facilities - [[Iran]] could use its nuclear capabilities to twist the UAE's arm into surrendering three disputed islands, which could set a dangerous precedent and allow Iran to set up forward military facilities, including missile launchpads [(00:08:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=530s). ## Recruitment of New Proxy Units and Border Disputes - A nuclear-armed Iran would look to recruit and develop new proxy units in the region, and could try to turn back the clock in other places, rendering internationally recognized borders moot [(00:10:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=601s). - A nuclear-armed Iran would likely look to probe Saudi territory and gather a new proxy force, particularly in the Shia-majority population areas in eastern [[Saudi Arabia]], which would permanently overturn the balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia [(00:10:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=609s). ## Ideological Beliefs and Regional Concessions - Joining the nuclear club would fundamentally reshape the way [[Iran]] views itself, amplifying its ideological beliefs that legitimize interference in the affairs of others, and it would look to extract security, political, and economic concessions from its neighbors [(00:10:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=635s). ## Disruption of Economic Corridors - Iran would want to terminate the India-Middle East-[[Europe]] economic corridor, which is backed by the United States and the [[European Union]], and a nuclear-armed Iran would want to abolish the route altogether [(00:11:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=662s). - Iran also dislikes the Zanzer corridor, which is part of the larger [[Trans-Caspian International Transport Route | Middle Corridor]], and opposes it because it wants the route to go through its territory instead, thereby being part of the Chinese-European trade [(00:11:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=693s). - A nuclear-armed Iran would look to renegotiate the terms for the [[North–South Corridor, Singapore | North-South Corridor]], which goes from [[Moscow]] to [[Baku]], [[Tehran]], and then [[Mumbai]], in ways that it comes out on top [(00:12:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=759s). ## Reshaping the Iran-Israel Rivalry - Iran's rivalry with [[Israel]] stands on the precipice of fundamental change, and a nuclear-armed [[Iran]] would reshape this configuration, with both countries relying on their nuclear arsenals to shield them from conventional escalation [(00:13:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=783s). - The dynamic between a nuclear-armed Iran and a nuclear-armed Israel is known as the stability-instability paradox, where the probability of nuclear conflict decreases, the probability of conventional war increases, and vice versa [(00:13:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=834s). ## Nuclear Stability-Instability Paradox and Proxy Forces - A nuclear-armed Iran would augment proxy forces such as [[Hezbollah]] and [[Hamas]], and could try to smuggle nuclear bombs into the hands of Hezbollah, which would be a major concern for Israeli intelligence [(00:14:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=888s). - If Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons, the threat of a dirty bomb would still exist, and groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the [[Houthi movement | Houthis]] would likely behave more aggressively, knowing they have the backing of a nuclear-armed power [(00:15:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=911s). ## Decreased Risks for Iran and Regional Perceptions - The risks associated with supporting its proxies would decrease for [[Iran]] as nuclear deterrence is established, but many regional nations would view this development differently [(00:15:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=925s). ## Potential Nuclear Arms Race in the Region - Some regional nations, such as [[Saudi Arabia]], [[Turkey]], [[Egypt]], and the [[United Arab Emirates | UAE]], would likely explore developing their own nuclear deterrents if Iran obtained a nuclear bomb [(00:15:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=950s). - This would lead to a nuclear arms race in the region, which could potentially stabilize the area through the stability paradox, where the destructive power of nuclear weapons is respected even by determined leaders [(00:16:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=971s). - However, this is a scenario that policymakers would rather avoid, and the period before Iran develops a sufficient arsenal would be particularly dangerous, with circumstances becoming increasingly volatile [(00:16:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=1012s). ## Timeline for Arsenal Development and Detonation - [[Iran]] would likely need a few more months to develop an arsenal of around half a dozen or more nuclear weapons before detonating one on the surface, as they would not want to fire one weapon and then be out of ammunition [(00:16:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI&t=999s). ## Sources - [website](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjmb8O-fRWI)