## Iowa Poll Results - A recent [[Iowa]] poll showed a shift in the [[Presidential election | presidential race]], with Donald Trump's lead over [[Kamala Harris]] shrinking from 18 points to 4 points in three months. [(00:02:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=120s) - This shift was attributed to an increase in likely voters, particularly among [[Demography | demographics]] that favor Harris, rather than a decrease in Trump's support. [(00:02:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=120s) ## Demographics of Likely Voters - The increase in likely voters was observed across various demographics, including women, younger voters, college-educated individuals, and suburban residents. [(00:03:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=181s) ## J. Ann Selzer and the Iowa Poll - [[Ann Selzer | J. Ann Selzer]] has led the Iowa Poll at [[The Des Moines Register | the Des Moines Register]] since 1987 and launched her own polling firm, Selzer & Company, in 1996. [(00:01:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=92s) - J. Ann Selzer prioritizes the accuracy of her polls, aiming to reveal the truth about voter sentiment in [[Iowa]] regardless of her clients' preferences. [(00:06:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=410s) - Selzer conducts interviews for the Iowa poll by phone and acknowledges that the response rate is not high, but it is still higher than the national average. [(00:24:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=1469s) - Selzer expresses concern that one day the polls will not be accurate due to people not answering their phones, but for now, there are enough people willing to participate. [(00:24:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=1489s) - When asked about the poll's accuracy in reaching young voters (18-22 years old) who are less likely to answer phone calls, Selzer admits to worrying about it and acknowledges that it is a potential problem for the future. [(00:25:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=1532s) ## 2024 Presidential Race - The 2024 campaign cycle is unique, with Kamala Harris's campaign gaining momentum rapidly. [(00:08:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=504s) - It remains to be seen if this surge will last. [(00:08:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=504s) - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support, though diminished, remains significant at 6%, drawing evenly from past [[Joe Biden | Biden]] and [[Donald Trump | Trump]] voters and a larger portion from non-voters. [(00:09:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=589s) ## Public Opinion on Abortion - 64% of Iowans believe that most or all abortions should be legal. [(00:12:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=766s) - This percentage has increased since 2008, when it was at 48%. [(00:12:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=766s) - More Iowans oppose the six-week [[Abortion law | abortion ban]] than support it. [(00:13:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=797s) ## Voter Preferences on Key Issues - When asked about their preferences on seven key issues, Iowan voters favored Trump's positions over Kamala Harris' positions on six of them. [(00:14:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=861s) - On five of those six issues, [[Donald Trump | Trump]] held a double-digit advantage. [(00:14:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=861s) ## Candidate Favorability Ratings - Donald Trump's favorability rating decreased slightly, while Kamala Harris's favorability rating increased from June to the time of this video. [(00:19:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=1177s) ## Understanding Polls - National polls are not predictive of election outcomes, but rather reflect the overall mood of the nation at a specific time. [(00:21:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=1319s) - When consuming news about polls, it is important to be discerning as there are many different polling methodologies, some more reliable than others. [(00:22:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s&t=1353s) ## Sources - [website](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh3tJDFfA2s)