## Calendars and their History - The subject of calendars is being explored, a topic that tends to have two extremes: total ignorance or denial, and complete panic, neither of which is correct [(00:01:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=89s). - In 701 BC, all calendars on [[Earth]] changed, with various speculations from astronomers and cosmologists, including the possibility of changes in the orbit of Mars [(00:01:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=116s). - The modern calendar has its roots in the ancient Roman Republican calendar, which was introduced by the fifth king of [[Rome]], traditionally associated with King [[Lucius Tarquinius Priscus | Tarquinius Priscus]], in 616-539 BC [(00:02:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=141s). - The Roman Republican calendar attempted to reconcile the complexities between lunar and solar movements but became inadequate and was amended in many ways, leading to a major overhaul [(00:02:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=163s). - [[Julius Caesar]] invited the Alexandrian astronomer [[Sosigenes (astronomer) | Sosigenes]] to assist in a reform, resulting in the Julian calendar, which also underwent amendments and changes over the years [(00:03:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=184s). - The Julian calendar had problems, including an error of 11 minutes and 14 seconds per year, accumulating to a significant discrepancy by 1540 [(00:03:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=201s). - In 1545, the [[Council of Trent]] authorized [[Pope Paul III]] to correct the error, but a satisfactory solution was not formulated until 1572, and it wasn't until [[Pope Gregory XIII]] was elected that a reform was implemented [(00:03:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=217s). - The [[Gregorian calendar | Gregorian]] reform, introduced in 1582, declared October 5th to be October 15th, eliminating 10 excess days, and also determined that three out of four century years would not be leap years [(00:04:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=251s). - The Gregorian calendar has a rule that every four Centennial years would be leap years, but unless the Centennial year is divisible by 400, it would not be a leap year, which is why 1700, 1800, and 1900 were not leap years, but the year 2000 was [(00:04:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=264s). - The acceptance of the Gregorian calendar was not universal due to the division between the Eastern and Western churches, as well as between [[Protestantism | Protestants]] and [[Catholic Church | Catholics]], resulting in a 300-year period for its widespread adoption [(00:05:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=300s). - Catholic countries such as [[France]], [[Italy]], [[Luxembourg]], [[Portugal]], and [[Spain]] adopted the calendar in 1582, while most [[Germany | German]] Roman Catholic states adopted it in 1584, and Switzerland's changeover was not completed until 1812 [(00:05:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=317s). - Protestant countries took longer to adopt the calendar, with [[Denmark]] adopting it in 1699-1700, [[United Kingdom | Britain]] in 1752, [[Sweden]] in 1753, and Protestant [[Germans]] finally adopting it in 1776 [(00:05:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=342s). - Other countries that adopted the calendar include [[Japan]] in 1873, [[Egypt]] in 1875, and various [[Europe | European]] countries in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with [[Greece]] being one of the last to adopt it in 1923 [(00:05:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=355s). - [[Alaska]] did not adopt the calendar until 1867, when it was transferred from [[Russia]] to the [[United States]] [(00:06:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=373s). - The French Republican calendar, introduced after the [[French Revolution]], had a 10-day week but was eventually abandoned in 1806 [(00:06:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=386s). - The [[Muslims]], [[Hinduism | Hindus]], and Jews maintain their own calendars, which are not a significant hindrance to commerce [(00:06:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=408s). ## The Y2K Problem and its Implications - The global trauma caused by the calendar changeovers over the centuries will be trivial compared to the challenges faced as the year 2000 approached [(00:07:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=455s). - The [[Year 2000 problem | year 2000 problem]], also known as the Y2K bug, refers to the issue of calendar routines needing to be corrected, which was initially underestimated but ultimately proved to be a significant challenge [(00:08:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=522s). - The background of the individual includes being a pioneer in packet switching and computer networks, having managed the Ford Motor Company Computer Center, and having built the first international industrial computer network in 1966 [(00:09:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=563s). - The individual has also been a director of over a dozen publicly traded high-technology companies competing in the international marketplace [(00:09:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=599s). - The world has changed significantly with the advent of fast and efficient electronic commercial marketplaces, allowing for the execution of contracts electronically and the transfer of over a trillion dollars per day in international banking networks [(00:10:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=630s). - However, this speed and efficiency come at the price of rigidity, making it difficult to change the entire system [(00:11:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=661s). - The culture has become shockingly dependent on electronic networks, and one of the goals is to raise awareness of this dependence [(00:11:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=680s). - The pace of technological change has increased, especially in the computer industry, resulting in technology becoming outdated quickly [(00:11:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=697s). - As a result, technology purchased a few years ago may have been manufactured by a company that is no longer in business [(00:11:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=712s). - Historically, the military was at the forefront of technological advancements, but now the latest technology can be found in the commercial market, such as in the latest PCs [(00:13:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=791s). - The military often relies on outdated technology, with a 10- to 15-year gap between laboratory experiments and field deployment due to paperwork, testing, and infrastructure requirements [(00:12:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=767s). - Companies that built obsolete technologies are no longer in existence, but their products are still needed, and companies are making a profit by acquiring the rights to these obsolete technologies to build spare parts, especially for the military, at high prices [(00:13:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=814s). - The pace of change has a price, which is [[Obsolescence | obsolescence]], and this is a significant issue in the computer industry [(00:14:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=855s). - Many people write dates using two digits for the year, such as "98" for 1998, which can cause problems in computer systems [(00:14:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=870s). - In the early days of computing, memory was a precious commodity, and programmers used six-digit dates (two for the month, two for the day, and two for the year) to save space, assuming the year 2000 was an abstraction that wouldn't be a problem [(00:14:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=895s). - The computer industry is facing a problem on December 31, 1999, when adding one to the year will cause issues, as many computer circuits and software presume the year is in the 1900s [(00:15:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=943s). - This problem can cause errors in calculations, such as determining eligibility for Social Security checks, and can lead to incorrect results or system failures [(00:16:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=981s). - Some systems will interpret the year 2000 as 1900, 1980, or will freeze or generate unpredictable results, due to shortcuts taken to save space and ensure compatibility with other systems [(00:16:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1017s). - The problem is not trivial and requires finding and fixing error-checking programs that assume a year starting with "1" is a mistake, which can be challenging as these programs are often long forgotten and lack up-to-date documentation [(00:17:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1063s). - The problem of the year 2000, also known as the Y2K bug, is caused by computer systems and programs that use only the last two digits of a year, assuming that the first two digits are "19", which will cause errors when the year 2000 is reached [(00:17:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1076s). - Many programs rely on a day of the week calculation to perform certain tasks, but the year 2000 is a leap year, which will affect many cycles, and January 1st, 2000, is a Saturday, not a Monday like in 1900 [(00:18:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1094s). - The Y2K bug will not only affect computer systems but also other technologies, such as the global positioning satellite system, which relies on the number of weeks from a reference date and will be reset to zero on August 22nd, 1999 [(00:20:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1207s). - The [[Gartner]] group estimates that 60% of applications that aren't changed will yield bad numbers prior to the year 2000, and many systems will experience errors, system halts, and confusion when trying to fix these issues [(00:20:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1247s). - The Y2K bug is not just a problem for January 1st, 2000, but also affects other dates, such as February 29th, 2000, which will cause problems for many cycles, including long-distance telephone calls and bank vaults [(00:18:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1124s). - Some programmers used shortcuts, such as using "99" in the date field to halt a program, which are now causing problems and are being rediscovered [(00:19:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1169s). - The Y2K bug will affect many industries, including finance, transportation, and technology, and will require significant efforts to fix and prevent disruptions [(00:21:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1290s). - The computing power of modern chips is approximately 200 million times faster than it was in the past, with a single chip costing less than a dime and providing the equivalent of a man-year of computing power [(00:22:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1354s). - Large-scale mainframes are still widely used and have not become obsolete, with shipments increasing by about 20% per year, and 55% of the large computers operating in America being less than two years old [(00:23:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1390s). - These mainframes are the backbone of various government agencies, banking, telecommunications, public utilities, and other critical systems, controlling essential services such as bank transactions, ATM machines, water supply, power grids, and satellite guidance systems [(00:23:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1407s). - Many of these systems rely on old software and programming languages, with around 500 languages in use, many of which are no longer supported, and approximately 180 billion lines of code worldwide that need to be examined and assessed to avoid potential chaos [(00:24:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1490s). - The majority of mainframe programs are custom-written and have been continually modified over the years, with patches often not being uniform or adequately documented, and no real standards among programmers for the use of date codes [(00:25:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1531s). - Fixing these programs is a complex task, requiring finding the code, familiarizing oneself with the program, modifying it without adding new bugs, and testing it with every other system it interacts with, which is a time-consuming process [(00:25:51)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1551s). - The effort required to test and modify these programs is estimated to be around 80% of the total effort, with the remaining 20% being the actual modification of the code [(00:26:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1564s). - There is a shortage of programmers, particularly Cobalt programmers, with only around half a million available, making it challenging to address the issues with these legacy systems [(00:26:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1582s). - The [[United States]] estimates that an additional 500,000 to 700,000 people are needed to address the [[Year 2000 problem | Y2K problem]] by the year 2000, with various organizations having large amounts of code to review, including the [[United States Department of Defense | Department of Defense]] with over 1 billion lines, AT&T with 500 million lines, and the [[Internal Revenue Service | IRS]] with 62 million lines [(00:26:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1583s). - Many companies, including [[City Bank (Bangladesh) | City Bank]], Chase, and [[American Airlines]], have announced significant liabilities due to the Y2K problem, with [[FedEx | Federal Express]] budgeting over $500 million to address the issue [(00:26:51)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1611s). - The [[Gartner]] group estimates that half of businesses and half of government agencies will not be Y2K compliant, with 87% of CEOs planning to rely on outside firms to solve the problem [(00:27:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1642s). - The process of addressing the Y2K problem involves phases of ignorance, dissonance, denial, panic, and realization [(00:27:51)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1671s). - The problem is not limited to large systems, as 250 million personal computers also need to be Y2K compliant at the hardware, operating system, and application levels [(00:28:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1688s). - Many BIOS chips in personal computers will not roll over to the year 2000 correctly, with 79% of pre-1997 BIOS chips unable to handle the year 2000 [(00:28:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1725s). - [[Computer Weekly]] estimates that only 50% of new computers will be Y2K compliant, and many operating systems, including DOS, are not compliant [(00:28:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1736s). - Application software is also a problem, with 2600 out of 4000 software packages tested failing to be Y2K compliant [(00:29:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1768s). - Home computer users can test their systems for Y2K compliance by entering dates in the year 2000 and checking if they are sorted correctly, and by performing date math calculations [(00:29:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1776s). - The [[Year 2000 problem | Y2K problem]] also affects embedded systems, a sector of the industry that is not well understood [(00:30:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1809s). - Embedded chips are widely used in various electrical devices and systems, with over 3 billion manufactured in 1995 and 7 billion in 1997, and are estimated to be over 15 million by the year 2000, with many expected to exhibit date anomalies [(00:30:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1829s). - The Gardner group estimates that one in five critical processes, such as petrochemical plants, electric power plants, and aviation applications, are at risk of failure due to embedded chip malfunctions [(00:31:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1867s). - A major [[United Kingdom | British]] 500-megawatt power plant failed due to a datetime malfunction in an embedded system, highlighting the potential risks of these chips [(00:31:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1874s). - Embedded chip systems are used in various critical applications, including satellites, oil rigs, factory controllers, weapons systems, power plants, airlines, and medical facilities [(00:31:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1903s). - A hospital's brand new [[Intensive care unit | ICU]] equipment failed when tested for the year 2000 date change, but the manufacturer had anticipated the issue and provided a fix [(00:32:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1929s). - [[General Motors]] has 60,000 robots on its assembly lines, and accessing and replacing embedded chips in these systems can be difficult and costly [(00:32:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1958s). - Replacement chips for old systems may not be available, and programming and testing embedded chips can be challenging due to proprietary languages and limited talent [(00:32:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1977s). - The cost of checking and replacing embedded chips can be high, with one oil company estimating a cost of $75,000 per chip [(00:33:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=1994s). - The [[Gartner]] group estimates that the worldwide cost of addressing the [[Year 2000 problem | year 2000 problem]] will be $600 billion, while the Office of Management budget estimates that the US government will spend at least $3 billion [(00:33:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2013s). ## Cascading Effects and System Failures - The concept of the domino effect, cascading effect, or ripple effect is discussed, where a single event can trigger a chain reaction of subsequent events, often with significant consequences [(00:34:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2072s). - The 17-day strike at two [[Dayton, Ohio]] brake manufacturing plants in March 1996 is cited as an example, which led to the shutdown of 26 [[General Motors]] plants in [[North America]], affecting over 177,000 workers and costing GM around $900 million [(00:34:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2095s). - A similar strike at GM's powertrain division transmission plant in July 1997 is mentioned as another example of the ripple effect [(00:35:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2129s). - An [[Idaho]] power line short circuit in July 1996, caused by a tree growing too close to the transmission line, led to a widespread power outage affecting 15 Western states, parts of [[Canada]], and [[Mexico]] [(00:35:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2141s). - A faulty software installation caused [[AOL | America Online]] a day-long outage in August 1996, affecting its 6 million subscribers and dependent businesses [(00:36:51)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2211s). - The 15-day walkout by the [[International Brotherhood of Teamsters | Teamsters]] union on [[United Parcel Service]] in August 1997 is cited as another example, which led to a shift in demand to competitors and ultimately resulted in UPS laying off 15,000 workers [(00:37:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2233s). - These examples are used to illustrate the potential consequences of single causes in single systems, and the question is raised about what might happen if multiple causes in multiple systems were to occur simultaneously on a global basis [(00:37:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2265s). - The potential for widespread disruptions is noted, particularly in the context of the approaching year 2000 and the possibility of multiple systems failures occurring at the same time [(00:38:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2290s). ## Potential Consequences and Global Impact - The [[Social Security Administration]] sends out 43 million checks per month to American citizens, and a 1% error rate generates 43 to 50 million phone calls from confused or angry recipients [(00:38:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2325s). - The G10 organization in [[Basel]], [[Switzerland]] has officially warned the [[International community | International Community]] of the chaos that will result from a lack of progress in addressing the [[Year 2000 problem | Y2K problem]] [(00:39:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2345s). - Some credit cards have expiration dates after the year 2000, but machines may not recognize them as valid, causing issues with transactions [(00:39:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2354s). - The [[United States Department of the Treasury | Treasury Department]] is warning banks that if they don't comply with Y2K fixes, they will lose their Federal insurance if they're not ready by December 1998 [(00:39:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2380s). - Fractional Reserve banking allows banks to loan out more money than they have in deposits, with a 20% margin, meaning a $1,000 deposit can be loaned out as $5,000 [(00:39:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2390s). - The government uses the [[Federal Reserve]] to create money through credit, rather than printing presses, with over 90% of the money in the [[United States]] being fiat currency [(00:40:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2445s). - If more than 20% of people try to withdraw their deposits, the banking system could collapse, as banks have borrowed short and lent long, violating a cardinal sin in banking [(00:41:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2481s). - Bank runs are feared in many cultures, and the current situation could lead to a scheduled bank run, with potentially disastrous consequences [(00:41:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2513s). - Even if large banks in [[New York City]] get their programs working, hundreds of local banks may not be able to process checks, leading to issues for depositors [(00:42:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2536s). - The world economy may face turmoil due to various issues, with some experts predicting containment and others forecasting a global collapse, although the actual impact is uncertain [(00:42:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2564s). - The [[Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation]] (FDIC) has only about 1% of the reserves it needs, making it primarily a cosmetic entity, and foreign banks are in even worse shape [(00:43:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2585s). - International banking is a significant concern, with foreign banks only beginning to acknowledge their problems and lacking time to address them before a scheduled bank run in 700 days [(00:43:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2604s). - The Hawaiian Electric utility system in [[Honolulu]] experienced issues when testing the date change, and the [[Nuclear Regulatory Commission]] (NRC) is not 100% sure of the impact of year 2000 computer glitches on nuclear reactors [(00:43:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2620s). - Solar flares can cause significant disruptions to electrical systems, including scrambling broadcast signals, corroding buried utilities, and interrupting transatlantic phone signals, with the North American power grid being particularly vulnerable [(00:44:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2646s). - A solar flare in 1989 caused a blackout in [[Quebec | Quebec Province]], [[Canada]], affecting over 6 million customers, and the sunspots are on an 11-year cycle, which could lead to another significant event [(00:44:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2676s). - The water supply is managed by complex systems that rely on embedded chips and mainframes, and a small town in [[Nebraska]] discovered that its software would not accept dates after May 25th, 1995, requiring manual monitoring [(00:45:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2719s). - Process industries have significant problems, including a hypothetical scenario in which a pumping station in [[Alaska]] shuts down and refuses to restart, causing crude oil to freeze and turn to sludge [(00:46:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2761s). - The [[Social Security Administration]] is ahead of other government agencies in addressing the issue, having put 400 full-time programmers on the task in 1989 and reviewing 6 million lines of code after four years of work [(00:46:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2794s). - The US government expected to complete 32 million lines of code by 1999, but they discovered 50 additional agencies with different systems, adding 33 million more lines of code, and a 1% error rate could lead to 500,000 checks a month going out in error [(00:46:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2805s). - The [[Internal Revenue Service | IRS]] had to deal with the changes of the 1997 tax code and Y2K, with 88,000 programs on 80 mainframes, 62 million lines of code, and only 2,000 programs fixed by 1997 [(00:47:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2837s). - Between 8 and 9% of IRS programmers left to join the private sector, and the IRS Y2K Project Director, John Yo, expressed concerns that the IRS could run out of people to do the job [(00:47:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2852s). - The problem is not a lack of funding, but rather a lack of trained and knowledgeable people to address the issue [(00:47:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2865s). - The [[United States Department of Defense | Department of Defense]] inadvertently fired two missiles in a simulation due to a calendar problem, and there are concerns that [[China]] and [[Russia]] are operating on stolen software from the US [(00:47:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2878s). - The process to address the Y2K issue involves awareness, assessment, renovation, and validation, with 80% of efforts focused on validation [(00:48:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2896s). - By mid-1997, only 302 of 7,000 federal government systems were compliant, and many senior people are starting to admit that a disaster is likely [(00:48:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2923s). - Dr. Edward Yardeni, chief economist of Deutsche Morgan Greenfield, warns of a 40% chance of a global recession due to the Y2K issue, and expects to raise his estimate to 60% [(00:49:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2945s). - The UK is a leader in [[Europe]] in addressing the Y2K issue, but only 10% of companies were in the assessment phase by the end of last year, and they are also burdened by euro dollar conversions [(00:49:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2972s). - Other countries, such as [[Germany]], [[France]], [[Italy]], and [[Spain]], are assessing the problem, but some countries, like [[Australia]] and [[New Zealand]], seem to be ahead of Europe [(00:49:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=2994s). - A major law enforcement system in New Zealand has already started showing problems since January 1st of that year [(00:50:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3002s). ## Political and Social Implications - The War Powers Act, which was technically used to suspend the [[Constitution]] by [[Franklin D. Roosevelt | FDR]] and renewed by Clinton, allows the chief executive officer of the [[United States]] to suspend the Constitution by declaring a [[State of emergency | National Emergency]] [(00:50:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3020s). - Despots in governments often love crises and create them if they don't have one, as seen in the actions of [[Adolf Hitler | Hitler]], [[Joseph Stalin | Stalin]], and FDR [(00:51:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3065s). - As the year 1998 goes into 1999, the awareness of the impending year 2000 rollover increases, and people may realize that there is an inexorable point in time called Midnight December 31st of 1999 when the calendar has to roll over, potentially leading to drastic upheavals [(00:51:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3082s). - One possibility is that Clinton could declare a National Emergency, suspend the election, or implement drastic proposals, which could be facilitated by the ineffectual [[United States Congress | Congress]] and [[United States Senate | Senate]] [(00:51:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3116s). ## Personal Preparedness and Prudence - [[Bible | The Bible]] says that the prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, while the simple keep going and suffer for it, as stated in [[Proverb | Proverbs]] 22:3 and 27:12 [(00:52:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3167s). - There are two kinds of people: those who will shrug off the potential dangers of the year 2000 rollover, and those who will take action to prepare for it [(00:53:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3185s). - Some people argue that the year 2000 rollover is not a significant issue, with one book listing 50 reasons not to be worried, including the idea that [[Jesus]] will come before the year 2000 [(00:53:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3212s). - Having a plan in place for potential dangers, such as fire insurance for one's house, is a prudent decision, even if one does not expect the danger to occur [(00:54:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3250s). - It is prudent to have a contingency plan in place, such as insurance, for unexpected events, and individuals owe it to themselves and their families to be prepared [(00:54:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3263s). - In the event of a high probability of mechanical bank upheavals, individuals should consider taking steps to protect themselves, such as keeping printed copies of important records [(00:55:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3308s). - These records should include bank statements, birth certificates, and other important documents, and individuals should make sure to have written, authorized copies [(00:56:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3390s). - It is also recommended to periodically confirm social security information in writing and to acquire complete hard copy records to defend one's position in case of an upheaval [(00:57:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3422s). - Individuals should consider planning their affairs to recognize that they may not be able to access their safe deposit boxes or bank accounts in the event of a bank holiday [(00:57:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3477s). - It is essential to think about logistics and have a plan in place, as everyone's situation is different, and individuals should use the time they have to prepare [(00:58:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3500s). - Some people may choose not to keep substantial amounts of cash in the bank in December 1999, and instead, explore alternative options [(00:57:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3465s). - Some people are advised to consider distancing themselves from major urban areas if their life allows it, in preparation for potential disruptions [(00:58:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3530s). ## Personal Relocation and Self-Sufficiency - The speaker has deep roots in [[Southern California]], but five years ago, they felt the Lord was causing them to move from their home in [[Big Bear Lake, California | Big Bear]], California, after an earthquake damaged or destroyed 4,800 homes in the town [(00:59:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3574s). - The speaker and their family moved to Coeur d'Alene, [[Idaho]], a rural location with a population of around 20-30,000, which is close to a decent airport and has a support group for their ministry [(01:00:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3620s). - The speaker has wondered why the Lord led them to Coeur d'Alene specifically, but they have found it to be a wonderful experience and a good location for their needs [(01:00:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3656s). - The speaker suspects that the Lord may have moved them to Coeur d'Alene in anticipation of future events, such as Y2K, and notes that their location has its own well, energy storage, and power generator, which could be beneficial in a crisis [(01:01:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3687s). - The speaker notes that having a well, energy storage, and a power generator can provide a sense of security and preparedness for potential disruptions [(01:01:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3707s). - January 1st, 2000, falls in the middle of winter, which may not be significant in some regions but is important in others, such as the northwest. [(01:02:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3722s) - There is a growing trend of people developing personal independence and self-reliance by storing food, water, and critical medical supplies, as well as stocking up on ammunition for various reasons, including barter. [(01:02:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3745s) ## Approaching the Year 2000 - January 1st, 2000, will be a Saturday, followed by a Monday holiday, making it a long weekend, but it is uncertain whether the [[Year 2000 problem | Y2K problem]] will be resolved by then. [(01:03:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3796s) - There are two common mistakes people make regarding the year 2000 calendar rollover: ignoring or denying the problem, and panicking, with some people writing doomsday newsletters. [(01:03:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3823s) - The first step in addressing the Y2K issue is to be sensitized to it, be alert, and assess the information available to determine what makes sense and what does not. [(01:04:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3878s) - It is essential to do homework and research to understand the problem, rather than relying on others who may not have done their homework. [(01:05:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3917s) - Two relevant scriptures are [[Proverb | Proverbs]] 22:3 or 27:12, which states, "The prudent see danger coming and take refuge; the simple keep going and suffer for it," and 2 Timothy 1:7, which says, "The Lord has not given us a spirit of fear but of power and of love and of a sound mind." [(01:05:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3920s) - [[Jesus]] said to "occupy till I come," and there are various eschatological possibilities, but it's essential to be prudent and prepared for different scenarios [(01:06:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3973s). - Everyone has a unique life and response to potential chaos, and some may need to distance themselves from the chaos that can accompany national disasters [(01:06:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=3989s). - Civil unrest and mindless fury can be more tragic than natural disasters, and it's crucial to be sensitized to the signs and watch for opportunities to be prudent [(01:06:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4008s). - The same situations that provide opportunities for witness and community building can also lead to desperation, violence, and the need for food, medical supplies, and help [(01:07:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4031s). - People will be hurting and in need of answers, help, food, and medical supplies, and this is a situation to pray about and think about [(01:08:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4096s). - It's essential to plan ahead and not wait until the last minute to prepare for potential disasters, and there are resources available for those who want to do their homework [(01:08:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4121s). ## Eschatological Interpretations and Predictions - There has been a long-held belief in [[Judaism | Jewish]] and Christian literature that there will be 4,000 years of history before [[Jesus | Christ]], 2,000 years after, and then a 1,000-year period of perfect rule [(01:09:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4167s). - Many people have made charts and visualized the world coming to an end around the year 2000, but it's naive to put too much weight on specific dates and calendars [(01:10:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4200s). - Many things seem to be pointing to a climax in the near horizon, although no specific dates are being set, and the year 2000 is not necessarily the exact time frame being referred to [(01:10:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4226s). - The [[Year 2000 problem | Y2K problem]] and the calendar changeover are expected to lead to large-scale civil upheaval in utilities, banking, and other areas, resulting in a crisis [(01:10:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4245s). - The interdependent systems that rely on each other for support are all coming to a climax at the same time, which is a scary scenario for engineers and may lead to government abuse [(01:11:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4269s). - Agencies are now realizing the severity of the problem and are seeking more budget and funds to address the calendar changeover, which may be used as an opportunity for the executive branch to advance its own agenda [(01:11:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4298s). - It is essential to be discerning and possibly cynical when watching the proposals that will come forth in the coming months and quarters [(01:12:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4337s). - The development of House Resolution 304, an inquiry for impeachment, will be interesting to watch, and it will not be surprising if it confirms apathy or worse in the [[United States House of Representatives | House of Representatives]] [(01:12:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4345s). - A verse in [[Daniel 7 | Daniel]] chapter 7, specifically verse 23, speaks of the fourth Beast, which shall devour the whole [[Earth | earth]] and tread it down, and verse 24 mentions the 10 horns out of the kingdom, representing 10 kings that shall arise [(01:13:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4414s). - Another king shall arise after the 10, be diverse from the first, and subdue three kings, often referred to as the [[Antichrist]] [(01:13:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4433s). - The Antichrist shall speak great words against the most high, and this title is considered unfortunate due to its narrowness, with 33 different titles in the [[Old Testament]] and 13 in the [[New Testament]] [(01:14:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4451s). - The Antichrist is described as someone who constantly speaks out against [[God]], blaspheming and declaring great words against the most high, and will wear out the Saints of the most high [(01:14:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4480s). - The phrase "he will overcome the Saints" in [[Revelation 13]] is seen as one of the many testimonies of a pre-trib [[Rapture]], but it's essential to note that not all Saints are alike, as there are Saints in the Old Testament, the current period, and those that will emerge later [(01:15:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4520s). - [[Jesus]] said that [[John the Baptist]] was the greatest man born of woman, but also stated that the least in the [[Kingdom of Heaven (film) | Kingdom of Heaven]] is greater than John, indicating that John, although great, was not part of the Kingdom of Heaven [(01:15:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4553s). - The Old Testament ended with John the Baptist, and the law and the prophets were until John, as stated in [[Luke 16]]:16 [(01:16:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4584s). - Those in Christ have incredible benefits not available to [[New Orleans Saints | Old Testament Saints]], such as the Holy Spirit, which cannot be taken away, as stated in [[Epistle to the Ephesians | Ephesians]] [(01:17:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4647s). - There are Saints in the [[Old Testament]], such as John the Baptist, and others mentioned in [[Matthew 16]], and also Saints that are post-church, as demonstrated by the [[Antichrist]] overcoming the Saints in Revelation 13 and [[Daniel 7]] [(01:17:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4665s). ## The Antichrist and Biblical Prophecy - The Antichrist will think to change times and laws, possibly having his own calendar, and will be given authority to do so [(01:18:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4711s). - The concept of a dual, as opposed to singular or plural, exists in languages like [[Greek language | Greek]], but is rare in [[English language | English]], with one exception being the phrase "both of them," which implies exactly two. [(01:19:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4757s) - The term "times" in the phrase "a Time Times the dividing of time" refers to a dual, not the plural, and is equivalent to 1 plus 2 and a half, or 3 and a half. [(01:19:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4789s) - This phrase is used to describe a specific period of time in [[Bible | the Bible]], known as half of a seven-year period, the middle of the week of [[Daniel 7 | Daniel]], 42 months, 1260 days, or "time times and the dividing of time." [(01:20:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4801s) - The exact events of the next 700 days are unknown, but it is possible that a crisis may escalate to a point of major international adventurism or strange occurrences. [(01:20:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4821s) ## Spiritual Preparedness and Priorities - The challenge for individuals is to confirm their position with [[Jesus | Jesus Christ]] daily and to prioritize their lives in eternal terms, rather than just focusing on physical preparations. [(01:20:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4859s) - Salvation is not just a one-time decision, but a beginning, and individuals should consider what they have done with their salvation and how they can be good stewards and ministers of the Gospel. [(01:21:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4869s) - If a countdown of 70 days or another number of days is indeed underway, it may be helpful in making priorities and taking a closer look at one's life and what is truly important. [(01:21:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4907s) - It is easy to get caught up in watching events unfold or preparing physically, but it is more important to prioritize one's life in eternal terms and to declare the Gospel of Jesus Christ. [(01:22:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4935s) - The realization that institutions trusted over the last several decades are frail or fraudulent can be a difficult adjustment, but it is an opportunity to re-evaluate priorities and focus on what is truly important. [(01:22:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4955s) - Many things people have committed to in life, such as military, executive, and citizenship, have turned out to be clay, which is hard to deal with, and it is encouraged to prayerfully and aggressively seek the Lord's will in response to these times [(01:22:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4961s). - [[Jesus]] chided the [[Pharisees]] in [[Matthew 16]], quoting the old [[Proverb | proverb]] "red sky in the night, Sailor's Delight; red sky in the morning, [[Sailor | sailor]] take warning," indicating that people can discern the weather but not the signs of the times [(01:23:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=4987s). - The international scene is being watched, with the [[Middle East]] on the verge of boiling over, [[Russia]] planning to invade, and the rise of the kings of the Far East, who will be more powerful than the [[United States]] before the year 2000 [(01:23:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5005s). - A virus in the electronic and techn culture has emerged, which may elude management, making it an interesting time to get into the word and take seriously what [[God]] is doing [(01:23:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5021s). - Each person has a different agenda and mission, but they all have in common the Declaration of Jesus Christ, and it is essential to spend time on one's knees to discern what God wants from each individual in the next 700 days [(01:23:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5038s). ## Closing Prayer and Commitment - A closing word of prayer is offered, acknowledging embarrassment at being surprised by events unfolding as predicted in God's word, and thanking God for providing for all needs in advance and for the redemption in [[Jesus | Jesus Christ]] [(01:24:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5056s). - The prayer expresses gratitude for God's love and precision in caring, and acknowledges that suffering may be a way to learn how to minister to others who suffer, and that challenges can be opportunities to help others overcome similar challenges [(01:25:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5133s). - The prayer asks for wisdom to discern opportunities for the gospel and God's kingdom in the face of emerging challenges, and to be good stewards for families, dependents, and various ministries [(01:26:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5183s). - A prayer is offered, seeking discernment and guidance from [[God]], acknowledging the abundance of opportunities and the importance of recognizing and utilizing individual gifts for the kingdom [(01:26:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5212s). - The prayer expresses the desire to turn gifts towards the kingdom and to have a new hunger and appetite for God's word, as well as a new burden for souls [(01:27:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5239s). - The prayer also expresses gratitude for God's abundance, sounding the alarm, and the unique opportunity presented by the coming 700 days for the kingdom [(01:27:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5267s). - Confession is made of sin, including arrogance, presumption, and ingratitude, and forgiveness is sought, referencing God's promise to forgive and cleanse from all unrighteousness [(01:28:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5288s). - The prayer concludes with a commitment to be effective for God, seeking to be cleansed vessels, and is offered in the name of Yeshua, [[Jesus | Jesus Christ]] [(01:28:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA&t=5305s). ## Sources - [website](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Tc9YMOMNA?si=5tjUM4zILIO8cNzE)