## Gen Z Church Attendance Down [(00:00:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=0s) - [[Generation Z | Gen Z]] church attendance has decreased since 2020, with 22% attending church weekly in 2020 and only 16% reporting weekly attendance three years later [(00:00:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=8s). - The number of Gen Z individuals who never attend church increased from 28% to 37% in just three years [(00:00:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=20s). - Despite the decline in church attendance, massive revivals have been happening, starting at Asbury and spreading to churches, college stadiums, and other locations [(00:00:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=36s). - Gen Z is experiencing a trend of being in revival and retreat at the same time, which is identified as the number one church trend for 2025 [(00:00:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=50s). ## 2025 Church Trends: What Should You Be Paying Attention To? [(00:00:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=54s) - The 2025 [[Church (building) | Church Trends]] series aims to help [[Church Leader Insights | church leaders]] identify key trends to focus on in the upcoming year, as day-to-day ministry tasks can make it challenging to see the bigger picture [(00:01:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=67s). - Church leaders who miss the bigger picture may find that their day-to-day efforts are well-intentioned but ultimately miss the mark, making it essential to stay informed about emerging trends [(00:01:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=97s). - The annual Church Trends podcast is designed to help church leaders and their teams stay informed about key trends and make necessary course corrections [(00:01:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=108s). - The five Church trends identified for 2025 will be outlined in this episode and broken down in future episodes, which will feature expert guests such as JP Luda, Jenny Allen, Noah Haron, Joby Martin, Mike Householder, David Kinnaman, and [[Mark Matlock]] [(00:01:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=114s). - Future episodes will cover topics such as [[Generation Z | Gen Z]], church planting, high conversion Church growth, and the [[Mental health | Mental Health]] crisis and spiritual openness [(00:02:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=123s). - Show notes and a leader guide are available for church leaders and their teams to help them apply the trends to their church, which can be accessed at Kernehof.com/episode700 or 2020ChurchTrends.com [(00:02:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=150s). ## 5 Church Trends to Watch [(00:03:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=183s) - To lead more effectively in 2025, it is essential for [[Church Leader Insights | church leaders]] to track five disruptive [[Church (building) | church trends]] that will significantly impact their ministries [(00:03:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=188s). - One of the challenges church leaders face is that gathering and analyzing data in ministry requires a lot of time, attention, and focus, making it difficult to see the bigger picture [(00:03:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=201s). - Missing the bigger picture can cause day-to-day efforts to miss the mark, regardless of how well-intentioned they are [(00:03:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=216s). - The annual Church Trends training is designed to help church leaders and their teams stay informed and focused on the most significant trends [(00:03:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=224s). - This year, the focus is on the top five most significant church trends, rather than a broader list of eight to ten trends [(00:03:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=236s). - A leader guide is available to facilitate conversations and deeper exploration of these trends with church teams [(00:04:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=241s). ## Gen Z is in Revival and Retreat [(00:04:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=254s) - [[Generation Z | Gen Z]] is experiencing a revival and retreat simultaneously, with a renewal happening across college campuses, churches, and other places around the world, as seen in the Asbury outpouring and the unit us movement that swept across [[United States | American]] college campuses in 2024 [(00:04:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=255s). - According to Barna data, Gen Z is generally spiritually open, with over two-thirds saying they are highly or moderately open spiritually [(00:05:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=325s). - However, spiritual openness doesn't always lead to [[Christianity]] and can also lead to [[Buddhism]] or self-directed spirituality [(00:05:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=343s). - Even if people's openness leads them to Christianity, it doesn't automatically translate to church attendance [(00:05:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=357s). - There is an 18-point drop in spiritual openness between Gen Z teens and Gen Z adults, with Gen Z getting more closed spiritually as they become adults [(00:06:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=369s). - Gen Z church attendance is actually down since 2020, with 22% attending church weekly in 2020 and only 16% reporting weekly attendance three years later [(00:06:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=389s). - The number of [[Generation Z | Gen Z]] who never go to church grew from 28% to 37% in just three years [(00:06:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=405s). - To address this trend, it would be wise for churches to double down on their student and NextGen Ministry, as the more they do to keep high school and college students engaged in the faith, the more likely it is that their faith as teens will morph into faith as adults [(00:07:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=439s). - Churches should consider funding the Next Generation and building relationships with young adults and teens in their church and community [(00:07:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=478s). ## The Church's Distracted Focus on Discipleship [(00:08:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=516s) - Over the last five years, the top thing [[Church Leader Insights | church leaders]] have been talking about is discipleship, which is not necessarily a bad thing, but it has led to a collective panic attack among pastors due to people leaving the church and getting involved in conspiracy theories and partisanship [(00:08:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=518s). - The [[COVID-19]] pandemic led to a call for deeper discipleship, as the previous way of doing discipleship was producing fickle and shallow disciples [(00:09:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=549s). - There is a lack of clarity and agreement among pastors on what discipleship means, with 20 different pastors likely to give 20 different answers [(00:09:23)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=563s). - Upon further examination, it is discovered that evangelism in the discipleship process is now on life support in many churches [(00:09:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=579s). ## The Evangelism Crisis [(00:09:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=585s) - Three data points reveal the extent of the crisis around evangelism: the number of pastors who say their church is very effective at outreach to non-churchgoers dropped from 13% in 2015 to 1% in 2023, only 3 to 5% of [[United States | American]] churches that are growing are growing through conversion growth, and 43% of [[Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) | Southern Baptist]] churches experience no converts or baptisms in a calendar year [(00:09:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=585s). - The low percentage of effective evangelism among churches is a significant issue, with 77% of Southern Baptist churches baptizing between zero and five people during a full calendar year, indicating a need for change [(00:10:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=646s). - The crisis in evangelism puts the future of the church at risk, as it may become a club for the already convinced, losing its mission and purpose [(00:11:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=660s). - The goal of church growth should not be for the sake of growth itself, but rather to fulfill the mission of reaching out to the world and loving neighbors who are not like the church community [(00:11:18)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=678s). - The church needs to take evangelism more seriously, and although there is no easy answer to the current crisis, it is possible to find a solution with hard work and dedication [(00:12:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=722s). - The current state of evangelism in the church is a call to action, with a need for a significant increase in the number of pastors who say their church is great at reaching unchurched people, from the current 1% to 30%, 40%, or 50% [(00:12:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=746s). ## Church closures outpacing new church plants [(00:12:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=751s) - Church closures are outpacing new church plants at a ratio of approximately 3 to 1, with around 4,000 to 10,000 churches closing every year in the [[United States]] [(00:12:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=776s). - In contrast, only about 3,000 churches are being planted each year, resulting in a significant net loss of churches [(00:13:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=783s). - Prior to the [[COVID-19]] pandemic, there were already concerns about the number of church closures, but reliable statistics for the post-pandemic period are not available [(00:13:08)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=788s). - The current trend of church closures outpacing new church plants has resulted in a growing urgency to increase the number of church plants [(00:12:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=769s). - The need for new church plants has never been greater, making it an ideal time for those considering planting a church or launching a campus [(00:13:31)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=811s). ## 3 Keys to Success in Church Planting [(00:13:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=814s) - Many church plants fail due to a lack of planning and strategy, rather than a lack of faith, which is similar to why most businesses fail [(00:13:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=815s). - The average church plant launches with $135,000 in funding and has between 100 and 200 attendees, but launching with lower funding, such as $70,000, can result in significantly lower attendance, typically 50 or less [(00:13:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=836s). - Churches that launch with higher funding, such as an average of $322,000, tend to have higher attendance, with an average of 500 plus at launch, and are more likely to thrive [(00:14:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=865s). - The data suggests that higher funding is correlated with higher attendance, and both are key factors in determining whether a church plant will survive and thrive [(00:14:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=880s). - To increase the chances of success, it is recommended to take a slow and deliberate approach to church planting, building a core team, raising money from leaders and donors, and then launching [(00:15:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=906s). ## The Rise of the Non-Derivative Church [(00:15:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=922s) - The concept of the "non-derivative church" refers to a shift away from the typical church model that has been widely adopted in recent years, characterized by a modern band, relevant communicator, vibrant kids and student ministries, upbeat serving teams, and small groups [(00:15:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=958s). - This model, often referred to as the "attractional church model," has been popularized through social media and has been followed by many revitalized churches and church plants [(00:15:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=942s). - However, a recent trend has emerged where thriving churches are moving away from this cookie-cutter approach and instead embracing a more unique and authentic expression of their faith [(00:16:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1001s). - Examples of this can be seen in churches such as Red Church in [[Melbourne]], [[Australia]], and Village Church in [[Dallas]], [[Texas]], where the worship songs, sermons, and overall atmosphere are more diverse and less formulaic [(00:16:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=990s). - At Village Church, [[Matt Chandler (pastor) | Matt Chandler]] gave an unscripted welcome during the announcement window, which felt welcoming and free-spirited [(00:17:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1020s). - At Red Church, Mark Sayers gave people an opportunity to come up and pray to [[God]] at the front if they wanted more zeal in their life, which resulted in about 80% of the room responding [(00:17:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1037s). - The key takeaway is that each leader is doing what is right for the people they serve, rather than simply copying a formula or trying to fit into a certain mold [(00:17:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1070s). - The next generation is looking for an alternative to the culture, rather than an echo of it, and churches that are true to who they are and experiment with what works in their context are likely to thrive [(00:18:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1091s). - The non-derivative church might be a trend to watch for in the future, as it represents a shift towards authenticity and uniqueness in the way churches express their faith [(00:18:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1110s). ## The Church Leader Mental Health Crisis in 2025 [(00:18:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1112s) - The church's leader [[Mental health | mental health]] crisis is expected to worsen in 2025, despite a slight rebound from an all-time low during the [[COVID-19]] pandemic [(00:18:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1120s). - The number of pastors who considered quitting full-time ministry within the last year dropped from 42% in 2022 to 33% in 2023, but this still indicates a significant issue [(00:19:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1144s). - A staggering 18% of pastors have thought about suicide or self-harm in the last year, highlighting the severity of the mental health crisis [(00:19:26)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1166s). - Senior pastors are experiencing pervasive loneliness, with only 19% receiving monthly spiritual and personal support from peers or mentors, down from 37% in 2015 [(00:20:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1207s). - 81% of pastors are not getting the support they need to thrive, and only 21% of pastors over 45 and 7% of [[Church Leader Insights | church leaders]] under 45 say they are flourishing in their well-being [(00:20:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1215s). - The mental health crisis in the church is a major concern, as the well-being of leaders directly affects the health of the church and its future [(00:20:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1254s). - To address the crisis, senior leaders need to model healthy practices, and gone are the days when leaders can drive their teams to work long hours without prioritizing their well-being [(00:21:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1285s). - Leaders should adopt the mantra "live in a way today that will help you thrive tomorrow," making it an organizational reality for all team members and those they serve [(00:22:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1330s). - The call to ministry can be difficult, but it's often made more challenging than necessary, and leaders should strive to create a culture where teams and churches can flourish [(00:22:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4&t=1357s). ## Sources - [website](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4?si=ry_BzyXQFKnyAl_n)