## About the Survey [(00:00:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=0s) - The presentation is based on a talk given to two groups of pastors a year ago, but the information is now being shared with the general public as it's considered important for everyone to know, especially those concerned about church attendance and the survival of their churches [(00:00:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=33s). - The presentation is titled "The Coming Church Attendance Crisis" and is based on research and observations, including a book titled "The Great Dechurching" by Jim Davis, Michael Graham, and [[Ryan Burge (political scientist) | Ryan Burge]], which quantifies the decline in church attendance in [[United States | America]] [(00:01:39)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=99s). - The book states that more people have left the church in the last 25 years than the number of new [[Christianity | Christians]] from the [[Great Awakening | Great Awakenings]] and the Billy Graham Crusades combined [(00:02:06)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=126s). - The presenter has been conducting church attendance surveys in their community of [[Dixon, Illinois]], for 40 years, with the first survey conducted in 1982 and the most recent one in 2023 [(00:02:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=173s). - The surveys have been conducted every few years, with a total of eight surveys completed over the 42-year period [(00:03:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=187s). - The surveys involve contacting every church within a 5-mile radius of Dixon, [[Illinois]], and asking for their average weekend attendance, with the most recent survey showing a decline from 35 churches to 30 churches in the area [(00:03:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=204s). - The surveys are based on a headcount of actual people attending church services, rather than a representative sample of people in town, and the presenter will reveal the findings of the 2023 survey [(00:04:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=275s). ## 2023 Findings: The Actual Drop in Attendance [(00:05:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=320s) - A study found a 60% drop in church attendance in [[Dixon, Illinois]], from 1983 to 2023, with attendance decreasing from 6,327 to 2,541 people over the 40-year period [(00:05:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=336s). - The decline in attendance was gradual, with hundreds of people dropping out each year, as depicted in a graphic representation where each "H" represents 100 people [(00:06:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=360s). - Comparing 1983 to 2023, the number of people in pews in Dixon decreased from 6,327 to approximately 2,500 [(00:07:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=452s). - The drop in attendance over the last 12 years (2012-2023) was almost 30%, from about 3,500 to 2,500 people [(00:07:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=478s). - The number of churches with an average attendance of 100 people or more decreased from 12 in 1983 to only four in 2023, with one of those churches averaging exactly 100 people at the end of 2023 [(00:09:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=544s). - As of the end of 2024, only three [[Protestantism | Protestant]] churches in Dixon have an average attendance of 100 or more people [(00:10:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=604s). - The median Protestant church attendance in 1983 was 75 people, with half of the churches having an average attendance of 75 people or more, or 75 people or less [(00:10:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=620s). - The median Protestant church attendance has dropped to 43 people, with half of the churches having 43 or less in attendance and half having 43 or more [(00:11:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=669s). ## Protestant Loss vs. Catholic Loss [(00:11:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=700s) - Over a 40-year period from 1983 to 2023, Protestant churches have lost 55% of their strength, while [[Catholic Church | Catholic]] churches have lost 66% of their attendees during the same time span [(00:11:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=707s). - A graphic representation of the losses shows that the [[Protestantism | Protestant]] losses since 1983 account for 55% of people who have dropped out of church, while the Catholic losses represent a 66% drop in attendance [(00:12:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=756s). - If someone had predicted 100 years ago that a church would lose 66% of its people in 40 years, it would have been considered a dramatic shock, but that is the reality Catholic churches are facing [(00:13:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=782s). - In 1983, 56% of people attending church were Protestant, but due to Catholics losing more than Protestants, the percentage of attendees in Protestant churches has increased to 63% by 2023 [(00:13:25)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=805s). - Graphically, this shift is represented by a decrease in Catholic church attendees from 44% in 1983 to 37% in 2023, while Protestant church attendees have increased from 56% to 63% during the same period [(00:13:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=833s). - This loss can be viewed as Catholics losing market share, with the percentage of attendees in Catholic churches decreasing over time [(00:14:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=852s). - A significant factor contributing to this loss is the "senior Factor," which became apparent after analyzing the data from the 2023 survey [(00:14:35)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=875s). ## The Senior Factor [(00:14:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=880s) - The median church has an average attendance of 43 or less, with a significant portion of attendees being seniors, which raises concerns about the future of these churches [(00:14:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=882s). - In [[Dixon, Illinois | Dixon]], 17% of the population is 65 years old or older, but 52% of people attending church are in this age group, indicating that the church population is disproportionately older [(00:15:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=910s). - This presents a problem for the future of the church in Dixon and possibly other communities, as the population of younger attendees is decreasing [(00:16:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=970s). - 33% of churches in Dixon have 70% of their attendees aged 65 or older, which is a significant issue for the sustainability of these churches [(00:16:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=984s). - Seniors are often loyal and generous, contributing a large portion of the church's income, but they will not be around forever, and their contributions will eventually decline [(00:17:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1027s). - As seniors age, they will eventually pass away, and their contributions to the church will cease, leaving a significant gap in the church's finances and membership [(00:17:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1063s). ## Debunking Gallup Polls [(00:18:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1095s) - [[Gallup, Inc. | Gallup]] polls have been conducted annually for years, asking people if they attend church, but these polls do not accurately represent reality [(00:18:16)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1096s). - According to Gallup polls, church attendance peaked in the 1960s at around 50% and remained steady at 40% until it started to drop around 2010, reaching 31% in 2020 [(00:18:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1129s). - However, many pastors believe that the actual church attendance is lower than the reported 31%, and some studies have shown that people tend to exaggerate their church attendance when surveyed [(00:19:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1161s). - Gallup's questions, such as "Did you yourself happen to attend church, synagogue, mosque, or temple in the last 7 days or not?", may not accurately reflect people's actual attendance [(00:19:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1196s). - A 1993 study found that phone respondents tend to overreport their church attendance due to social desirability bias, where people want to present themselves in a positive light [(00:20:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1221s). - Some researchers have attempted to verify Gallup's data by conducting headcounts in churches, but these headcounts often do not match the Gallup numbers [(00:20:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1257s). - A comparison of census data and church attendance in [[Dixon, Illinois]], showed a 177% discrepancy, suggesting that the reported attendance numbers may be inflated [(00:21:22)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1282s). - However, this discrepancy may be due to the fact that the survey covered churches outside the city limits of Dixon, including a radius of five miles, which would cover a larger population base [(00:21:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1318s). - Gallup's survey reported that 31% of the population is attending church, but a separate study suggests that the actual percentage is around 13.3% or less, including children, who attend church weekly [(00:22:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1377s). - A local example is given, where a big circle with a population of about 20,000 people has 2,541 people attending churches, resulting in an attendance rate of around 13.3% [(00:23:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1393s). - The population base of 20,000 may be generous, as it includes communities like Wung, Palmyra, Grandy Tour, and Nusa, as well as subdivisions outside the city limits, where people also attend church [(00:23:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1416s). - Dixon, a small conservative rural farm town, is used as an example, where people tend to be rather conservative and religious, yet the church attendance rate is still only around 13.3% [(00:24:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1461s). - It is suggested that if a town like [[Dixon, Illinois | Dixon]] has a church attendance rate of 13.3%, then cities like [[Chicago]], [[Orlando, Florida | Orlando]], [[New York City | New York]], [[Los Angeles]], and [[Las Vegas]] likely have much lower rates [(00:24:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1476s). - Dixon is considered to be on the upper end of the percentage of people who attend churches, implying that other areas have lower attendance rates [(00:24:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1488s). ## The Painful Prognosis [(00:24:55)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1495s) - A graph is presented, showing the results of surveys conducted since 1983, with six representative surveys displayed from 1983 to 2023, highlighting a trend line that indicates a decline in church attendance [(00:24:56)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1496s). - The trend line suggests that church attendance would reach zero by the year 2050, but following the numbers more closely indicates that it could actually reach zero by 2047 [(00:26:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1560s). - It is noted that it's unlikely church attendance will actually reach zero, as there will likely always be some churches that survive, but the trend line indicates a significant decline [(00:26:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1581s). - The concept of critical mass is introduced, which refers to the minimum size or amount required to start or maintain a venture, such as a church [(00:26:51)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1611s). - Churches are losing critical mass, making it harder for them to survive as they get smaller, with difficulties in paying bills, salaries, and sustaining operations [(00:26:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1614s). - A formula, known as the "6040 church," is mentioned, which may be of help in analyzing the data, although its details are not fully explained in this segment [(00:27:41)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1661s). ## The 60/40 Church [(00:27:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1670s) - A "60/40 church" refers to a church that has at least 60% of its attendees who are 65 or older and has 40 attendees or less, indicating a church that is likely to close its doors in 10 to 20 years [(00:27:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1670s). - This concept is illustrated with a visual depiction of a church with 60% of its attendees being senior citizens, represented by gray-haired individuals, and only 40 people attending [(00:28:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1708s). - A church with a 60/40 factor is considered to be in serious trouble for the future, as it may not be able to attract young families or build a youth group to sustain itself [(00:29:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1745s). - In [[Dixon, Illinois]], there are seven churches that fit the 60/40 church criteria, and five more churches are dangerously close to meeting this criteria [(00:29:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1757s). - One of these churches has an attendance of 50 people, but 80% of the attendees are over 65, making it challenging for the church to survive [(00:29:50)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1790s). - The situation is considered dire, as churches with a high percentage of older attendees and low overall attendance may struggle to attract younger families and sustain themselves for another generation [(00:30:58)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1858s). - The reasons for the great decline in church attendance over the last 40 years are not specified in this section, but the situation is considered serious [(00:31:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1861s). ## 10 Reasons for the Decline [(00:31:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1871s) - The decline in church attendance over the last 40 years is attributed to various factors, including public pastor scandals, which have caused erosion in the amount of faith people have in their pastors and churches [(00:31:30)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1890s). - A study published in [[Christianity Today]] in January 2020 found that the credibility of pastors has declined significantly, with only 32% of people believing that clergy have a high level of honesty or ethics, down from 60% in the 1970s [(00:32:24)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=1944s). - The polarizing effects of the religious right in the 1980s, led by figures such as [[Jerry Falwell]] and the [[Moral Majority]], may have contributed to the decline in church attendance as some people began to look down on those who attended church due to its perceived political clout [(00:33:33)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2013s). - The scheduling of school events and activities, such as sports and scouting, has changed since the 1990s, with many now taking place on Wednesday nights and Sunday mornings, conflicting with church attendance and potentially drawing people away from church [(00:34:11)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2051s). - The decline in church attendance may be a result of a combination of these factors, with some people stopping attending church and others being drawn away by alternative activities, creating a chicken-and-egg situation [(00:35:21)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2121s). - There are several reasons for the decline in church attendance over the last 40 years, including the fact that people are not going to church events held at the same time as school events, which may not be the school's fault but rather a sign of declining interest in church attendance [(00:35:28)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2128s). - The 9/11 effect, where people became suspicious of religious fanatics, not just [[Muslims]] but also [[Christianity | Christian]] fanatics, may have contributed to the decline in church attendance [(00:35:42)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2142s). - The effects of social media on socialization, where people are becoming less adept at having friends and building community with others, has also affected church attendance, as people can now watch sermons on their smartphones or computers at home [(00:36:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2180s). - Children are rejecting the evangelicalism of their parents, a factor that started to emerge in the 2010s and was traced by the book "On Dechurching" [(00:37:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2222s). - Secular culture is now in, and religious culture is out, making it difficult for churches to survive in this kind of culture, with [[United States | America]] no longer being a religious culture [(00:37:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2249s). - A significant decline in birth rates, with a drop from 67 births per 1,000 women in 1980 to 50 in 2020, has also been cited as a possible reason for the decline in church attendance, as fewer kids and parents going to church means a less guaranteed next generation of churchgoers [(00:38:19)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2299s). - The negative effects of Evangelical political power, where evangelicals are seen as a political group that people are trying to get attention from, has also contributed to the decline in church attendance [(00:39:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2378s). - The growing perception that evangelicals are trying to be political powerhouses is having negative effects on church attendance, as people are becoming fed up and do not want to be associated with it [(00:40:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2410s). - The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on church attendance worldwide, as many churches were forced to shut down in March, April, and May of 2020, and some remained closed for several months [(00:40:37)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2437s). - The pandemic led to a disruption in the habit of regular church attendance, causing some people to stop attending services even after they resumed, as they grew accustomed to spending Sundays differently [(00:41:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2465s). - The negative effects of the pandemic on church attendance have been widely acknowledged by pastors in [[United States | America]] and around the world [(00:41:27)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2487s). - On average, churches have lost around 20% of their attendees over the last three years due to the pandemic, although some churches have regained their pre-pandemic strength [(00:41:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2505s). - While some churches are slowly regaining lost attendees, many are continuing to lose more, as the critical mass of attendees is diminishing [(00:42:02)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2522s). ## Observations and Thoughts About the Future [(00:42:15)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2535s) - The decline in church attendance in America is not the fault of pastors, but rather a result of a general malaise affecting the country, with a shift from a religious culture to a secular one [(00:43:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2580s). - A small church can be healthy and happy, as seen in the first-century church, where all churches were small and met in people's homes, often with gatherings of less than 40 people [(00:43:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2623s). - Many churches have struggled with evangelism, with few excelling at gaining converts to [[Jesus]] and adding new people to the church through evangelism, and often being at a loss for how to reach the modern culture [(00:44:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2669s). - Churches have also failed at relational maturity, not building close relationships among attendees, making it easy for people to leave and not return, with many churches lacking relationships among their members [(00:45:45)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2745s). - The concept of church needs to be rethought, considering the Greek word "eklesia," which refers to a gathering or assembly, rather than a building, and reevaluating what is important when people come together [(00:46:18)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2778s). - Many small churches are expected to get smaller in the next 10-20 years due to the aging population and lack of young people, as older folks will eventually pass away, leaving fewer attendees [(00:47:10)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2830s). - A few larger churches are likely to grow as people seek churches with more programs, activities, and a sense of community, particularly for youth [(00:47:44)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2864s). - Only a few churches in a given area, such as [[Dixon, Illinois | Dixon]], have 100 or more attendees, and people may gravitate towards these larger churches, causing them to gain from the loss of smaller churches [(00:48:07)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2887s). - Increasing interchurch cooperation is necessary for the future, as smaller churches can benefit from working together to develop programs, such as youth groups, and share resources [(00:48:29)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2909s). - However, it is doubtful that pastors and churches will be willing to cooperate due to old partisan attitudes and a tendency to criticize one another [(00:49:14)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2954s). - A quote from [[Benjamin Franklin]], "if we don't hang together, we shall all hang separately," emphasizes the need for churches to work together and cooperate [(00:49:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=2980s). - Small churches that try to go it alone will face increasing difficulties, and it is essential for churches to find ways to serve their senior members, who have unique needs and struggles [(00:50:04)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3004s). - By serving seniors and fulfilling a particular mission, churches can make a difference in their community and stay alive, even if only temporarily [(00:50:53)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3053s). - The high cost of maintaining church buildings, including buying, building, heating, cooling, and maintenance, is a significant financial burden, with expenses such as replacing the roof, and may require churches to rethink their approach to gathering [(00:51:09)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3069s). - Alternative ways of gathering, such as forgoing a building or joining with another church, may be necessary for churches to survive financially and have enough money to pay a pastor [(00:51:34)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3094s). - A crisis in church attendance is already present, rather than being a future issue, with attendance having declined over the past 20 years and expected to continue decreasing at an alarming rate [(00:52:12)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3132s). - The large number of seniors in churches is contributing to the decline in attendance, which is expected to accelerate in the coming years [(00:52:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3156s). - Many churches are predicted to close in the next 10 years, with a possible 10 fewer churches in [[Dixon, Illinois | Dixon]] by 2034, and the remaining churches struggling to survive [(00:52:48)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3168s). - A few churches are expected to thrive, but it is essential for churches to figure out how to be among those that do well [(00:53:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3197s). - The church attendance crisis is not limited to Dixon, but is believed to exist in every city in [[United States | North America]], and possibly throughout the world [(00:53:47)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3227s). - The question of whether a church will survive for another 10 years is a pressing concern that churches must address [(00:54:05)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA&t=3245s). ## Sources - [website](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5S_Id9dZA)